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Ageing of Skills and Complementary Immigration in the EU Over the Next 15 Years
Carmen Munteanu - Communications Coordinator
19 February 2014
The Migration Policy Centre (MPC) and the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS) presented the paper "Ageing of skills and complementary immigration in the EU, 2010 – 2025", prepared by Philippe Fargues and Ashley McCormick.
This paper measures both population ageing and shrinking within the working age populations of all 27 European Union countries between 2010 and 2025, in the absence of any further migration. The paper provides the levels of net migration that should be necessary to maintain the size of the young working age population (aged 15-44 years) over the next 15 years.
The analysis does not factor in measures which could stimulate the participation of elderly population on the labour market, such as the introduction of life-long learning programmes or the postponement of the legal age of retirement. Results highlight that without migrants the employed population aged below 45 in all EU member states will have significant levels of shortfall.
Population ageing, skills and migration
Population ageing is recognised as a challenge to production and welfare systems when the population at working age decreases whilst population at retirement ages increases. The authors also mention however the "ageing of skills", which refers to the outdated knowledge among the working age population. In the opinion of Philippe Fargues and Ashley Mc Cormick, immigration in the short and mid-term is the only way to offset negative demographic trends, as migrant workers tend to leave the host country when they approach the retirement age. An objective in this line is to balance the ratio of the size of the population aged 15-64 to the size of the population aged 65 or over. One of the conclusions drawn by most scholars was that permanent immigration, without additional measures, cannot be a “solution” to population ageing but only to shrinking. Migration is only one of the possible answers to ageing.
There is a variety of policy measures which can mitigate the future impact of population and skill ageing upon the labour force in the 27 EU countries. One thing is certain: labour force ageing will have radical impacts in many member states. The most affected countries such as Spain, Greece, Italy, need policies in several areas in order to cope with such changes. One method may be to increase economic participation, especially of women. Or to increase the levels of occupational mobility in countries that are experiencing imbalances by occupation. The third method would be immigration. However the impact of any of the measures above, taken individually, will not be sufficient, considering the scale of the issue.
To conclude, migration that directly complements the requirements of EU member states should be part of the policies for maintaining the employed labour force on the job markets of most member states.
Source: Newsletter MPC December 2013
This paper measures both population ageing and shrinking within the working age populations of all 27 European Union countries between 2010 and 2025, in the absence of any further migration. The paper provides the levels of net migration that should be necessary to maintain the size of the young working age population (aged 15-44 years) over the next 15 years.
The analysis does not factor in measures which could stimulate the participation of elderly population on the labour market, such as the introduction of life-long learning programmes or the postponement of the legal age of retirement. Results highlight that without migrants the employed population aged below 45 in all EU member states will have significant levels of shortfall.
Population ageing, skills and migration
Population ageing is recognised as a challenge to production and welfare systems when the population at working age decreases whilst population at retirement ages increases. The authors also mention however the "ageing of skills", which refers to the outdated knowledge among the working age population. In the opinion of Philippe Fargues and Ashley Mc Cormick, immigration in the short and mid-term is the only way to offset negative demographic trends, as migrant workers tend to leave the host country when they approach the retirement age. An objective in this line is to balance the ratio of the size of the population aged 15-64 to the size of the population aged 65 or over. One of the conclusions drawn by most scholars was that permanent immigration, without additional measures, cannot be a “solution” to population ageing but only to shrinking. Migration is only one of the possible answers to ageing.
There is a variety of policy measures which can mitigate the future impact of population and skill ageing upon the labour force in the 27 EU countries. One thing is certain: labour force ageing will have radical impacts in many member states. The most affected countries such as Spain, Greece, Italy, need policies in several areas in order to cope with such changes. One method may be to increase economic participation, especially of women. Or to increase the levels of occupational mobility in countries that are experiencing imbalances by occupation. The third method would be immigration. However the impact of any of the measures above, taken individually, will not be sufficient, considering the scale of the issue.
To conclude, migration that directly complements the requirements of EU member states should be part of the policies for maintaining the employed labour force on the job markets of most member states.
Source: Newsletter MPC December 2013
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